Ready to Slide Rule

A deep dive into NBA statistics

Off Topic: My College Football Rankings Site

This is something I set up for fun a couple of years back, its an ELO system that ranks the FBS (aka D1) college football teams. Guess its about that time of year to crank it back up. I build in a prior season bias the first couple of weeks, so my system is lovin’ on USC like Kirk Herbstreet for the time being.

RANKINGS SITE

September 7, 2009 Posted by | Tools | , , , | Leave a comment

Enhanced Offensive Ratings – Factoring in MORR (Miss Off Reb Rate)

New blog HoopNumbers.com recently posted Missed Offensive Rebound Rates here. (in other words, the chance that a player’s missed FG is rebounded by his own team)

One of the approximations that the Offensive Rating calculation makes is estimating the number of possessions a player gives away by missed shots leading to defensive rebounds. The estimate is based on the team’s average offensive rebounding rate. With the MORR numbers available, we can recalculate offensive rating using MORR instead of the team average.

Let’s take a look at how this changes things. For these samples I’m looking at last year’s data for players with 1600+ minutes played. In the charts below, OffRtg is the player’s Offensive Rating, OffRtgMORR is the offensive rating with MORR factored in.

First, the players that got the biggest boost:

Blake and Sweet Lou each got a bump of almost 5 points, pretty substantial.

Here are the players taking the biggest hit:

These numbers pass the laugh test for me, as I do think Okafor and Villanueva were overrated by their base Offensive Ratings.

Finally here are the players ranked by the new adjusted offensive rating (OffRtgMORR), the top two remain the same (Gasol and Paul), but things mix up somewhat after that

For spreadsheet lovers, the raw data is here.

Update: Fuller view of the raw data is here.

September 3, 2009 Posted by | Data Mining | , , | 8 Comments

Team Offense Bar Charts

I’ve produced a series of bar charts which illustrate the percentage of a team’s possessions a player accounted for, vs the percentage of a team’s points the player produced. The formulas for possessions and points produced are detailed in Dean Oliver’s basketball on paper book (link in sidebar)

A high blue bar with a low red bar indicates a player who is generating a lot of points given his touches, and conversely a low blue bar with a high red bar indicates a player that is generating relatively few points given his utilization.

September 1, 2009 Posted by | Data Mining | , , | 1 Comment

2009 Points Produced Per Game By Team

Here are the 2009 Points Produced results, broken down by team.

atl johnson,joe 21.5
atl smith,josh 15.3
atl bibby,mike 15.1
atl williams,marvin 13.3
atl horford,al 12.1
atl murray,ronald 11.1
atl pachulia,zaza 7.1
atl evans,maurice 6.8
atl law,acie 3.4
atl jones,solomon 3.1
atl claxton,speedy 3.0
atl hunter,othello 1.5
atl gardner,thomas 1.3
atl west,mario 1.2
atl morris,randolph 0.8
bos pierce,paul 19.4
bos allen,ray 16.3
bos rondo,rajon 15.4
bos garnett,kevin 14.6
bos perkins,kendrick 9.1
bos powe,leon 8.0
bos allen,tony 7.4
bos davis,glen 7.3
bos house,eddie 7.2
bos moore,mikki 5.2
bos marbury,stephon 5.1
bos scalabrine,brian 3.1
bos walker,bill 2.8
bos pruitt,gabe 2.3
bos o’bryant,patrick 1.6
bos giddens,j.r. 0.7
cha richardson,jason 16.7
cha wallace,gerald 16.1
cha felton,raymond 15.9
cha diaw,boris 15.4
cha okafor,emeka 12.7
cha bell,raja 12.1
cha augustin,d.j. 11.6
cha radmanovic,vladi 7.8
cha dudley,jared 5.6
cha jefferson,dontel 4.8
cha brown,shannon 4.5
cha morrison,adam 4.3
cha howard,juwan 4.2
cha may,sean 3.9
cha carroll,matt 3.7
cha hollins,ryan 3.7
cha diop,desagana 3.5
cha mohammed,nazr 2.9
cha martin,cartier 2.5
cha singletary,sean 2.4
cha jones,dwayne 2.2
cha ajinca,alexis 2.1
cha brown,andre 2.1
cha johnson,linton 0.0
chi gordon,ben 19.0
chi rose,derrick 18.1
chi salmons,john 16.1
chi deng,luol 13.6
chi miller,brad 13.1
chi gooden,drew 13.1
chi hughes,larry 11.0
chi thomas,tyrus 10.7
chi hinrich,kirk 10.2
chi nocioni,andres 9.4
chi noah,joakim 8.0
chi thomas,tim 5.3
chi sefolosha,thabo 4.8
chi gray,aaron 4.2
chi hunter,lindsey 2.9
chi simmons,cedric 2.2
chi roberson,anthony 1.9
chi johnson,linton 1.3
chi nichols,demetris 1.1
cle james,lebron 29.0
cle williams,mo 17.0
cle ilgauskas,zydrun 12.6
cle west,delonte 11.8
cle varejao,anderson 8.9
cle gibson,daniel 7.6
cle smith,joe 6.8
cle szczerbiak,wally 6.6
cle pavlovic,sasha 4.6
cle wallace,ben 4.5
cle hickson,j.j. 3.8
cle jackson,darnell 2.1
cle kinsey,tarence 1.9
cle wright,lorenzen 1.5
cle williams,jawad 1.0
cle johnson,trey 0.9
dal nowitzki,dirk 23.2
dal terry,jason 17.7
dal howard,josh 16.1
dal kidd,jason 12.7
dal barea,juan_jose 8.5
dal bass,brandon 8.3
dal wright,antoine 6.9
dal dampier,erick 6.7
dal singleton,james 5.2
dal green,gerald 4.6
dal stackhouse,jerry 4.6
dal george,devean 3.3
dal williams,shawne 3.3
dal hollins,ryan 3.1
dal diop,desagana 2.5
dal carroll,matt 1.2
den anthony,carmelo 21.7
den iverson,allen 20.1
den billups,chauncey 18.7
den smith,j.r. 14.0
den hilario,nene 13.8
den martin,kenyon 11.2
den kleiza,linas 9.1
den carter,anthony 7.2
den andersen,chris 6.9
den jones,dahntay 5.5
den balkman,renaldo 5.3
den atkins,chucky 2.4
den petro,johan 2.4
den weems,sonny 1.5
den hart,jason 1.2
den howard,juwan 1.1
den samb,cheick 0.9
det hamilton,richard 17.6
det iverson,allen 17.4
det billups,chauncey 14.9
det stuckey,rodney 14.2
det prince,tayshaun 14.1
det wallace,rasheed 10.7
det mcdyess,antonio 10.1
det bynum,will 7.6
det maxiell,jason 6.0
det brown,kwame 4.7
det afflalo,arron 4.5
det johnson,amir 3.9
det herrmann,walter 3.5
det acker,alex 1.1
det sharpe,walter 0.8
gsw jackson,stephen 21.7
gsw crawford,jamal 19.1
gsw ellis,monta 18.0
gsw maggette,corey 17.3
gsw azubuike,kelenna 13.5
gsw biedrins,andris 12.9
gsw harrington,al 12.7
gsw watson,c.j. 9.6
gsw morrow,anthony 9.4
gsw belinelli,marco 8.4
gsw randolph,anthony 8.3
gsw wright,brandan 8.0
gsw turiaf,ronny 6.8
gsw nelson,demarcus 4.2
gsw kurz,rob 4.1
gsw davidson,jermare 3.0
gsw williams,marcus 1.6
hou ming,yao 18.6
hou artest,ron 16.5
hou mcgrady,tracy 16.3
hou alston,rafer 12.9
hou scola,luis 12.7
hou brooks,aaron 11.1
hou landry,carl 8.8
hou lowry,kyle 8.6
hou wafer,von 8.5
hou battier,shane 7.6
hou head,luther 4.9
hou barry,brent 3.9
hou hayes,chuck 2.1
hou mutombo,dikembe 2.0
hou white,james 1.4
hou cook,brian 1.2
hou dorsey,joey 0.7
ind granger,danny 23.0
ind ford,t.j. 16.0
ind dunleavy,mike 14.2
ind murphy,troy 13.9
ind jack,jarrett 13.4
ind daniels,marquis 13.2
ind foster,jeff 7.9
ind rush,brandon 7.3
ind hibbert,roy 7.2
ind nesterovic,rasho 7.1
ind graham,stephen 5.1
ind diener,travis 4.3
ind mcroberts,josh 2.8
ind baston,maceo 2.7
lac randolph,zach 19.5
lac davis,baron 17.1
lac thornton,al 15.6
lac gordon,eric 14.8
lac mobley,cuttino 11.9
lac kaman,chris 11.7
lac camby,marcus 11.0
lac thomas,tim 9.3
lac jones,fred 8.1
lac davis,ricky 6.7
lac collins,mardy 6.6
lac taylor,mike 6.1
lac novak,steve 5.7
lac skinner,brian 4.6
lac jordan,deandre 4.2
lac davis,paul 4.2
lac acker,alex 3.4
lac hart,jason 3.0
lac samb,cheick 1.4
lal bryant,kobe 25.4
lal gasol,pau 19.2
lal bynum,andrew 13.8
lal odom,lamar 12.0
lal fisher,derek 9.9
lal ariza,trevor 9.0
lal farmar,jordan 6.7
lal walton,luke 6.1
lal vujacic,sasha 5.6
lal radmanovic,vladi 5.3
lal powell,josh 4.4
lal brown,shannon 2.9
lal mbenga,dj 2.6
lal mihm,chris 2.5
lal morrison,adam 1.4
lal yue,sun 0.6
mem mayo,o.j. 17.5
mem gay,rudy 17.4
mem gasol,marc 12.4
mem conley,mike 11.6
mem warrick,hakim 11.1
mem lowry,kyle 8.6
mem arthur,darrell 5.8
mem milicic,darko 5.6
mem ross,quinton 3.9
mem miles,darius 3.5
mem jaric,marko 3.2
mem crittenton,javar 3.0
mem haddadi,hamed 2.9
mem buckner,greg 2.8
mem foyle,adonal 0.0
mia wade,dwyane 30.4
mia o’neal,jermaine 13.1
mia beasley,michael 12.6
mia marion,shawn 12.4
mia chalmers,mario 11.2
mia haslem,udonis 10.7
mia cook,daequan 8.0
mia moon,jamario 6.4
mia quinn,chris 5.4
mia head,luther 5.0
mia jones,james 3.9
mia blount,mark 3.6
mia magloire,jamaal 3.6
mia diawara,yakhouba 3.2
mia banks,marcus 3.0
mia anthony,joel 3.0
mia wright,dorell 2.9
mia livingston,shaun 2.5
mil redd,michael 18.5
mil jefferson,richar 17.7
mil villanueva,charl 15.0
mil sessions,ramon 13.9
mil bogut,andrew 12.1
mil ridnour,luke 10.8
mil bell,charlie 8.1
mil mbah_a_moute,luc 7.9
mil bogans,keith 5.8
mil alexander,joe 4.7
mil lue,tyronn 4.6
mil gadzuric,dan 4.4
mil elson,francisco 4.0
mil allen,malik 3.4
mil croshere,austin 3.3
mil gill,eddie 2.8
mil jones,damon 1.6
min jefferson,al 21.2
min foye,randy 16.0
min gomes,ryan 12.4
min love,kevin 11.8
min telfair,sebastia 10.9
min miller,mike 10.8
min smith,craig 9.3
min mccants,rashad 8.1
min brewer,corey 6.7
min carney,rodney 6.2
min brown,bobby 5.4
min williams,shelden 5.1
min ollie,kevin 4.8
min cardinal,brian 3.4
min collins,jason 2.3
min madsen,mark 0.7
min booth,calvin 0.6
njn harris,devin 22.4
njn carter,vince 20.4
njn lopez,brook 12.8
njn dooling,keyon 10.0
njn jianlian,yi 8.4
njn anderson,ryan 7.5
njn simmons,bobby 7.4
njn hayes,jarvis 7.4
njn douglas-roberts 4.9
njn boone,josh 4.7
njn hassell,trenton 4.1
njn swift,stromile 3.6
njn najera,eduardo 3.2
njn williams,sean 2.9
njn ager,maurice 1.6
nor paul,chris 26.3
nor west,david 20.0
nor stojakovic,peja 11.8
nor butler,rasual 9.8
nor chandler,tyson 9.8
nor posey,james 8.1
nor brown,devin 5.2
nor armstrong,hilton 4.9
nor wright,julian 4.6
nor daniels,antonio 4.5
nor peterson,morris 3.9
nor ely,melvin 3.6
nor marks,sean 3.4
nor james,mike 2.7
nor bowen,ryan 2.2
nyk randolph,zach 20.0
nyk crawford,jamal 18.5
nyk harrington,al 18.2
nyk robinson,nate 17.4
nyk lee,david 16.2
nyk chandler,wilson 13.7
nyk duhon,chris 13.6
nyk hughes,larry 10.8
nyk richardson,quent 9.8
nyk thomas,tim 8.7
nyk jeffries,jared 6.7
nyk sims,courtney 5.8
nyk wilcox,chris 5.5
nyk gallinari,danilo 5.4
nyk crawford,joe 4.4
nyk roberson,anthony 4.3
nyk sene,mouhamed 3.8
nyk collins,mardy 2.7
nyk james,jerome 2.7
nyk nichols,demetris 2.0
nyk rose,malik 1.9
nyk curry,eddy 1.1
nyk samb,cheick 0.3
okl durant,kevin 22.6
okl westbrook,russel 17.0
okl green,jeff 15.3
okl krstic,nenad 9.2
okl sefolosha,thabo 8.7
okl watson,earl 8.7
okl collison,nick 8.4
okl wilcox,chris 8.3
okl white,d.j. 8.2
okl mason,desmond 7.4
okl livingston,shaun 7.4
okl smith,joe 6.6
okl weaver,kyle 5.5
okl rose,malik 5.3
okl wilkins,damien 5.1
okl petro,johan 4.6
okl atkins,chucky 4.4
okl swift,robert 3.3
okl sene,mouhamed 3.0
okl hill,steven 1.5
orl howard,dwight 20.6
orl turkoglu,hedo 17.4
orl nelson,jameer 17.0
orl lewis,rashard 16.7
orl alston,rafer 13.3
orl pietrus,mickael 8.9
orl lee,courtney 7.6
orl johnson,anthony 6.1
orl redick,j.j. 5.6
orl bogans,keith 5.1
orl battie,tony 5.0
orl gortat,marcin 4.2
orl lue,tyronn 3.0
orl richardson,jerem 2.8
orl cook,brian 2.7
orl foyle,adonal 2.2
phi iguodala,andre 18.9
phi miller,andre 17.9
phi young,thaddeus 13.7
phi brand,elton 13.4
phi williams,louis 12.6
phi green,willie 8.0
phi speights,marrees 7.2
phi dalembert,samuel 6.8
phi evans,reggie 4.0
phi marshall,donyell 3.3
phi ivey,royal 2.9
phi ratliff,theo 2.3
phi rush,kareem 2.1
pho stoudemire,amare 20.1
pho nash,steve 18.8
pho o’neal,shaquille 16.7
pho richardson,jason 14.7
pho barbosa,leandro 13.0
pho hill,grant 11.5
pho barnes,matt 10.6
pho bell,raja 8.6
pho diaw,boris 8.5
pho dudley,jared 5.7
pho dragic,goran 5.3
pho amundson,louis 4.8
pho tucker,alando 4.4
pho lopez,robin 3.3
pho swift,stromile 3.2
pho brown,dee 3.0
pho singletary,sean 3.0
pho sims,courtney 0.0
por roy,brandon 22.3
por aldridge,lamarcu 17.5
por blake,steve 11.7
por outlaw,travis 11.3
por fernandez,rudy 9.7
por oden,greg 9.0
por rodriguez,sergio 6.0
por przybilla,joel 6.0
por batum,nicolas 5.4
por bayless,jerryd 4.6
por frye,channing 4.0
por randolph,shavlik 1.9
por diogu,ike 1.6
por ruffin,michael 0.8
por webster,martell 0.0
sac martin,kevin 22.6
sac salmons,john 17.5
sac miller,brad 13.1
sac gooden,drew 12.6
sac nocioni,andres 12.6
sac garcia,francisco 12.2
sac udrih,beno 12.0
sac thompson,jason 11.6
sac hawes,spencer 11.5
sac mccants,rashad 9.4
sac diogu,ike 8.3
sac jackson,bobby 7.7
sac brown,bobby 5.4
sac solomon,will 4.5
sac douby,quincy 4.0
sac williams,shelden 3.8
sac moore,mikki 3.8
sac greene,donte 3.7
sac booth,calvin 2.3
sac thomas,kenny 1.0
sac simmons,cedric 0.2
san parker,tony 22.5
san duncan,tim 19.9
san ginobili,manu 15.2
san mason,roger 10.7
san gooden,drew 9.0
san finley,michael 8.6
san bonner,matt 7.7
san hill,george 6.1
san thomas,kurt 5.2
san mensah-bonsu,pop 4.9
san udoka,ime 4.3
san farmer,desmon 4.0
san hairston,malik 3.7
san oberto,fabricio 3.6
san tolliver,anthony 3.3
san vaughn,jacque 3.0
san croshere,austin 2.7
san ahearn,blake 2.6
san bowen,bruce 2.5
san williams,marcus_ 0.3
tor bosh,chris 21.9
tor calderon,jose 15.4
tor marion,shawn 14.4
tor bargnani,andrea 13.6
tor o’neal,jermaine 13.0
tor parker,anthony 10.8
tor graham,joey 7.4
tor kapono,jason 7.3
tor moon,jamario 7.0
tor mensah-bonsu,pop 6.3
tor solomon,will 5.9
tor ukic,roko 4.9
tor douby,quincy 4.7
tor humphries,kris 4.1
tor o’bryant,patrick 3.9
tor banks,marcus 2.6
tor voskuhl,jake 1.3
tor adams,hassan 0.9
tor jawai,nathan 0.4
uta williams,deron 22.0
uta boozer,carlos 15.8
uta okur,mehmet 15.4
uta millsap,paul 13.8
uta brewer,ronnie 12.9
uta kirilenko,andrei 11.8
uta korver,kyle 8.3
uta miles,c.j. 8.3
uta koufos,kosta 4.5
uta price,ronnie 4.5
uta harpring,matt 4.2
uta knight,brevin 3.5
uta almond,morris 3.3
uta fesenko,kyrylo 2.3
uta collins,jarron 1.9
was butler,caron 20.5
was jamison,antawn 20.4
was arenas,gilbert 16.9
was blatche,andray 10.1
was james,mike 10.0
was haywood,brendan 9.8
was young,nick 9.6
was stevenson,deshaw 7.3
was songaila,darius 7.1
was mcgee,javale 6.4
was crittenton,javar 6.3
was daniels,antonio 6.2
was mcguire,dominic 5.9
was dixon,juan 5.6
was pecherov,oleksiy 3.7
was thomas,etan 3.2
was brown,dee 3.2

September 1, 2009 Posted by | Data Mining | , | Leave a comment

Win Shares added to Stats Calculator

Added Win Shares (broken down by offensive and defensive win shares) to the stats calculator today.

August 29, 2009 Posted by | Tools | , , | Leave a comment

NBA Players and the Aging Curve: Part 4

A comment from Grizzed By Vanjulio spurred me to take what was gleaned in the first installments and run a 2010 minutes-played projection on a team. The choice of basis and adjustment was determined by looking at the projected minutes for the historically similar players making up the sample for a given player that we are projecting. (I know that’s a tangled web of sentence)  The basis/adjustments for projected minute played ranges are listed below the projections.

Without further ado, projected minutes for your 2010 Memphis Grizzlies:

Memphis Grizzlies Minutes Played Projection

August 28, 2009 Posted by | Data Mining | , | Leave a comment

Defensive Ratings Added to Stats Calculator

Just a quick update, the stats calculator has been updated to include defensive rating.

August 28, 2009 Posted by | Tools | , , | Leave a comment

PER Calculations Tightened up on Stats Calculator

Earlier today I added PER to the stats calculator. I initially took some shortcuts to get an approximate PER, but I’ve since addressed those so you should be able to get a much more accurate number.

August 15, 2009 Posted by | Tools | , , | Leave a comment

Advanced Stats Calculator: Usage vs % Team Possessions

While working on the C# app that drives the stats calc, I realized what I had been calling “Usage Pct” was not using the same formula basketball-reference uses. Instead, I was using the method Dean Oliver uses in Basketball on Paper to calculate the individual “% Tm Possessions” values.

For some reason, I’d always thought these were equivalent but that was my mistake. The primary difference seems to be that the Oliver calculation includes offensive rebounding and assist components, whereas the Usage percentage is only concerned with shots and turnovers.

The page has been updated so that the Usage column uses the same calculation as basketball-reference, and a new column has been added called “% Team Poss” that displays the Oliver-style calculation.

Calculator is here.

August 15, 2009 Posted by | Tools | , , | Leave a comment

Approximate PER added to Stats Calculator

I updated the stats calculator to calculate an approximate version of PER. There are a couple of things keeping it from being exact:

1 – I use the simplest form of team pace estimate. Fixed

2 – If you look at the PER calculation method described by basketball-reference.com here, you can see at the bottom where a modifier is applied to the aPER to standardize results across different seasons. Obtaining this modifier involves doing a weighted total of the aPER for all players in the league. Instead, I approximate its value as a function of league pace. I may address this at some point by determining all of the post-merger modifier values and letting the user select season from a drop-down, but its not something that’s high on my list. Fixed

Update: Number one has been addressed and fixed. This also makes the usage calculation a little more accurate.

Another Update: Number two has been addressed and fixed. I’m going to make an updated post.

August 14, 2009 Posted by | Tools | , , | Leave a comment

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.