Off Topic: My College Football Rankings Site

This is something I set up for fun a couple of years back, its an ELO system that ranks the FBS (aka D1) college football teams. Guess its about that time of year to crank it back up. I build in a prior season bias the first couple of weeks, so my system is lovin’ on USC like Kirk Herbstreet for the time being.

RANKINGS SITE

Enhanced Offensive Ratings – Factoring in MORR (Miss Off Reb Rate)

New blog HoopNumbers.com recently posted Missed Offensive Rebound Rates here. (in other words, the chance that a player’s missed FG is rebounded by his own team)

One of the approximations that the Offensive Rating calculation makes is estimating the number of possessions a player gives away by missed shots leading to defensive rebounds. The estimate is based on the team’s average offensive rebounding rate. With the MORR numbers available, we can recalculate offensive rating using MORR instead of the team average.

Let’s take a look at how this changes things. For these samples I’m looking at last year’s data for players with 1600+ minutes played. In the charts below, OffRtg is the player’s Offensive Rating, OffRtgMORR is the offensive rating with MORR factored in.

First, the players that got the biggest boost:

Blake and Sweet Lou each got a bump of almost 5 points, pretty substantial.

Here are the players taking the biggest hit:

These numbers pass the laugh test for me, as I do think Okafor and Villanueva were overrated by their base Offensive Ratings.

Finally here are the players ranked by the new adjusted offensive rating (OffRtgMORR), the top two remain the same (Gasol and Paul), but things mix up somewhat after that

For spreadsheet lovers, the raw data is here.

Update: Fuller view of the raw data is here.

Team Offense Bar Charts

I’ve produced a series of bar charts which illustrate the percentage of a team’s possessions a player accounted for, vs the percentage of a team’s points the player produced. The formulas for possessions and points produced are detailed in Dean Oliver’s basketball on paper book (link in sidebar)

A high blue bar with a low red bar indicates a player who is generating a lot of points given his touches, and conversely a low blue bar with a high red bar indicates a player that is generating relatively few points given his utilization.

2009 Points Produced Per Game By Team

Here are the 2009 Points Produced results, broken down by team.

atl	johnson,joe	21.5
atl	smith,josh	15.3
atl	bibby,mike	15.1
atl	williams,marvin	13.3
atl	horford,al	12.1
atl	murray,ronald	11.1
atl	pachulia,zaza	7.1
atl	evans,maurice	6.8
atl	law,acie	3.4
atl	jones,solomon	3.1
atl	claxton,speedy	3.0
atl	hunter,othello	1.5
atl	gardner,thomas	1.3
atl	west,mario	1.2
atl	morris,randolph	0.8
bos	pierce,paul	19.4
bos	allen,ray	16.3
bos	rondo,rajon	15.4
bos	garnett,kevin	14.6
bos	perkins,kendrick	9.1
bos	powe,leon	8.0
bos	allen,tony	7.4
bos	davis,glen	7.3
bos	house,eddie	7.2
bos	moore,mikki	5.2
bos	marbury,stephon	5.1
bos	scalabrine,brian	3.1
bos	walker,bill	2.8
bos	pruitt,gabe	2.3
bos	o’bryant,patrick	1.6
bos	giddens,j.r.	0.7
cha	richardson,jason	16.7
cha	wallace,gerald	16.1
cha	felton,raymond	15.9
cha	diaw,boris	15.4
cha	okafor,emeka	12.7
cha	bell,raja	12.1
cha	augustin,d.j.	11.6
cha	radmanovic,vladi	7.8
cha	dudley,jared	5.6
cha	jefferson,dontel	4.8
cha	brown,shannon	4.5
cha	morrison,adam	4.3
cha	howard,juwan	4.2
cha	may,sean	3.9
cha	carroll,matt	3.7
cha	hollins,ryan	3.7
cha	diop,desagana	3.5
cha	mohammed,nazr	2.9
cha	martin,cartier	2.5
cha	singletary,sean	2.4
cha	jones,dwayne	2.2
cha	ajinca,alexis	2.1
cha	brown,andre	2.1
cha	johnson,linton	0.0
chi	gordon,ben	19.0
chi	rose,derrick	18.1
chi	salmons,john	16.1
chi	deng,luol	13.6
chi	miller,brad	13.1
chi	gooden,drew	13.1
chi	hughes,larry	11.0
chi	thomas,tyrus	10.7
chi	hinrich,kirk	10.2
chi	nocioni,andres	9.4
chi	noah,joakim	8.0
chi	thomas,tim	5.3
chi	sefolosha,thabo	4.8
chi	gray,aaron	4.2
chi	hunter,lindsey	2.9
chi	simmons,cedric	2.2
chi	roberson,anthony	1.9
chi	johnson,linton	1.3
chi	nichols,demetris	1.1
cle	james,lebron	29.0
cle	williams,mo	17.0
cle	ilgauskas,zydrun	12.6
cle	west,delonte	11.8
cle	varejao,anderson	8.9
cle	gibson,daniel	7.6
cle	smith,joe	6.8
cle	szczerbiak,wally	6.6
cle	pavlovic,sasha	4.6
cle	wallace,ben	4.5
cle	hickson,j.j.	3.8
cle	jackson,darnell	2.1
cle	kinsey,tarence	1.9
cle	wright,lorenzen	1.5
cle	williams,jawad	1.0
cle	johnson,trey	0.9
dal	nowitzki,dirk	23.2
dal	terry,jason	17.7
dal	howard,josh	16.1
dal	kidd,jason	12.7
dal	barea,juan_jose	8.5
dal	bass,brandon	8.3
dal	wright,antoine	6.9
dal	dampier,erick	6.7
dal	singleton,james	5.2
dal	green,gerald	4.6
dal	stackhouse,jerry	4.6
dal	george,devean	3.3
dal	williams,shawne	3.3
dal	hollins,ryan	3.1
dal	diop,desagana	2.5
dal	carroll,matt	1.2
den	anthony,carmelo	21.7
den	iverson,allen	20.1
den	billups,chauncey	18.7
den	smith,j.r.	14.0
den	hilario,nene	13.8
den	martin,kenyon	11.2
den	kleiza,linas	9.1
den	carter,anthony	7.2
den	andersen,chris	6.9
den	jones,dahntay	5.5
den	balkman,renaldo	5.3
den	atkins,chucky	2.4
den	petro,johan	2.4
den	weems,sonny	1.5
den	hart,jason	1.2
den	howard,juwan	1.1
den	samb,cheick	0.9
det	hamilton,richard	17.6
det	iverson,allen	17.4
det	billups,chauncey	14.9
det	stuckey,rodney	14.2
det	prince,tayshaun	14.1
det	wallace,rasheed	10.7
det	mcdyess,antonio	10.1
det	bynum,will	7.6
det	maxiell,jason	6.0
det	brown,kwame	4.7
det	afflalo,arron	4.5
det	johnson,amir	3.9
det	herrmann,walter	3.5
det	acker,alex	1.1
det	sharpe,walter	0.8
gsw	jackson,stephen	21.7
gsw	crawford,jamal	19.1
gsw	ellis,monta	18.0
gsw	maggette,corey	17.3
gsw	azubuike,kelenna	13.5
gsw	biedrins,andris	12.9
gsw	harrington,al	12.7
gsw	watson,c.j.	9.6
gsw	morrow,anthony	9.4
gsw	belinelli,marco	8.4
gsw	randolph,anthony	8.3
gsw	wright,brandan	8.0
gsw	turiaf,ronny	6.8
gsw	nelson,demarcus	4.2
gsw	kurz,rob	4.1
gsw	davidson,jermare	3.0
gsw	williams,marcus	1.6
hou	ming,yao	18.6
hou	artest,ron	16.5
hou	mcgrady,tracy	16.3
hou	alston,rafer	12.9
hou	scola,luis	12.7
hou	brooks,aaron	11.1
hou	landry,carl	8.8
hou	lowry,kyle	8.6
hou	wafer,von	8.5
hou	battier,shane	7.6
hou	head,luther	4.9
hou	barry,brent	3.9
hou	hayes,chuck	2.1
hou	mutombo,dikembe	2.0
hou	white,james	1.4
hou	cook,brian	1.2
hou	dorsey,joey	0.7
ind	granger,danny	23.0
ind	ford,t.j.	16.0
ind	dunleavy,mike	14.2
ind	murphy,troy	13.9
ind	jack,jarrett	13.4
ind	daniels,marquis	13.2
ind	foster,jeff	7.9
ind	rush,brandon	7.3
ind	hibbert,roy	7.2
ind	nesterovic,rasho	7.1
ind	graham,stephen	5.1
ind	diener,travis	4.3
ind	mcroberts,josh	2.8
ind	baston,maceo	2.7
lac	randolph,zach	19.5
lac	davis,baron	17.1
lac	thornton,al	15.6
lac	gordon,eric	14.8
lac	mobley,cuttino	11.9
lac	kaman,chris	11.7
lac	camby,marcus	11.0
lac	thomas,tim	9.3
lac	jones,fred	8.1
lac	davis,ricky	6.7
lac	collins,mardy	6.6
lac	taylor,mike	6.1
lac	novak,steve	5.7
lac	skinner,brian	4.6
lac	jordan,deandre	4.2
lac	davis,paul	4.2
lac	acker,alex	3.4
lac	hart,jason	3.0
lac	samb,cheick	1.4
lal	bryant,kobe	25.4
lal	gasol,pau	19.2
lal	bynum,andrew	13.8
lal	odom,lamar	12.0
lal	fisher,derek	9.9
lal	ariza,trevor	9.0
lal	farmar,jordan	6.7
lal	walton,luke	6.1
lal	vujacic,sasha	5.6
lal	radmanovic,vladi	5.3
lal	powell,josh	4.4
lal	brown,shannon	2.9
lal	mbenga,dj	2.6
lal	mihm,chris	2.5
lal	morrison,adam	1.4
lal	yue,sun	0.6
mem	mayo,o.j.	17.5
mem	gay,rudy	17.4
mem	gasol,marc	12.4
mem	conley,mike	11.6
mem	warrick,hakim	11.1
mem	lowry,kyle	8.6
mem	arthur,darrell	5.8
mem	milicic,darko	5.6
mem	ross,quinton	3.9
mem	miles,darius	3.5
mem	jaric,marko	3.2
mem	crittenton,javar	3.0
mem	haddadi,hamed	2.9
mem	buckner,greg	2.8
mem	foyle,adonal	0.0
mia	wade,dwyane	30.4
mia	o’neal,jermaine	13.1
mia	beasley,michael	12.6
mia	marion,shawn	12.4
mia	chalmers,mario	11.2
mia	haslem,udonis	10.7
mia	cook,daequan	8.0
mia	moon,jamario	6.4
mia	quinn,chris	5.4
mia	head,luther	5.0
mia	jones,james	3.9
mia	blount,mark	3.6
mia	magloire,jamaal	3.6
mia	diawara,yakhouba	3.2
mia	banks,marcus	3.0
mia	anthony,joel	3.0
mia	wright,dorell	2.9
mia	livingston,shaun	2.5
mil	redd,michael	18.5
mil	jefferson,richar	17.7
mil	villanueva,charl	15.0
mil	sessions,ramon	13.9
mil	bogut,andrew	12.1
mil	ridnour,luke	10.8
mil	bell,charlie	8.1
mil	mbah_a_moute,luc	7.9
mil	bogans,keith	5.8
mil	alexander,joe	4.7
mil	lue,tyronn	4.6
mil	gadzuric,dan	4.4
mil	elson,francisco	4.0
mil	allen,malik	3.4
mil	croshere,austin	3.3
mil	gill,eddie	2.8
mil	jones,damon	1.6
min	jefferson,al	21.2
min	foye,randy	16.0
min	gomes,ryan	12.4
min	love,kevin	11.8
min	telfair,sebastia	10.9
min	miller,mike	10.8
min	smith,craig	9.3
min	mccants,rashad	8.1
min	brewer,corey	6.7
min	carney,rodney	6.2
min	brown,bobby	5.4
min	williams,shelden	5.1
min	ollie,kevin	4.8
min	cardinal,brian	3.4
min	collins,jason	2.3
min	madsen,mark	0.7
min	booth,calvin	0.6
njn	harris,devin	22.4
njn	carter,vince	20.4
njn	lopez,brook	12.8
njn	dooling,keyon	10.0
njn	jianlian,yi	8.4
njn	anderson,ryan	7.5
njn	simmons,bobby	7.4
njn	hayes,jarvis	7.4
njn	douglas-roberts	4.9
njn	boone,josh	4.7
njn	hassell,trenton	4.1
njn	swift,stromile	3.6
njn	najera,eduardo	3.2
njn	williams,sean	2.9
njn	ager,maurice	1.6
nor	paul,chris	26.3
nor	west,david	20.0
nor	stojakovic,peja	11.8
nor	butler,rasual	9.8
nor	chandler,tyson	9.8
nor	posey,james	8.1
nor	brown,devin	5.2
nor	armstrong,hilton	4.9
nor	wright,julian	4.6
nor	daniels,antonio	4.5
nor	peterson,morris	3.9
nor	ely,melvin	3.6
nor	marks,sean	3.4
nor	james,mike	2.7
nor	bowen,ryan	2.2
nyk	randolph,zach	20.0
nyk	crawford,jamal	18.5
nyk	harrington,al	18.2
nyk	robinson,nate	17.4
nyk	lee,david	16.2
nyk	chandler,wilson	13.7
nyk	duhon,chris	13.6
nyk	hughes,larry	10.8
nyk	richardson,quent	9.8
nyk	thomas,tim	8.7
nyk	jeffries,jared	6.7
nyk	sims,courtney	5.8
nyk	wilcox,chris	5.5
nyk	gallinari,danilo	5.4
nyk	crawford,joe	4.4
nyk	roberson,anthony	4.3
nyk	sene,mouhamed	3.8
nyk	collins,mardy	2.7
nyk	james,jerome	2.7
nyk	nichols,demetris	2.0
nyk	rose,malik	1.9
nyk	curry,eddy	1.1
nyk	samb,cheick	0.3
okl	durant,kevin	22.6
okl	westbrook,russel	17.0
okl	green,jeff	15.3
okl	krstic,nenad	9.2
okl	sefolosha,thabo	8.7
okl	watson,earl	8.7
okl	collison,nick	8.4
okl	wilcox,chris	8.3
okl	white,d.j.	8.2
okl	mason,desmond	7.4
okl	livingston,shaun	7.4
okl	smith,joe	6.6
okl	weaver,kyle	5.5
okl	rose,malik	5.3
okl	wilkins,damien	5.1
okl	petro,johan	4.6
okl	atkins,chucky	4.4
okl	swift,robert	3.3
okl	sene,mouhamed	3.0
okl	hill,steven	1.5
orl	howard,dwight	20.6
orl	turkoglu,hedo	17.4
orl	nelson,jameer	17.0
orl	lewis,rashard	16.7
orl	alston,rafer	13.3
orl	pietrus,mickael	8.9
orl	lee,courtney	7.6
orl	johnson,anthony	6.1
orl	redick,j.j.	5.6
orl	bogans,keith	5.1
orl	battie,tony	5.0
orl	gortat,marcin	4.2
orl	lue,tyronn	3.0
orl	richardson,jerem	2.8
orl	cook,brian	2.7
orl	foyle,adonal	2.2
phi	iguodala,andre	18.9
phi	miller,andre	17.9
phi	young,thaddeus	13.7
phi	brand,elton	13.4
phi	williams,louis	12.6
phi	green,willie	8.0
phi	speights,marrees	7.2
phi	dalembert,samuel	6.8
phi	evans,reggie	4.0
phi	marshall,donyell	3.3
phi	ivey,royal	2.9
phi	ratliff,theo	2.3
phi	rush,kareem	2.1
pho	stoudemire,amare	20.1
pho	nash,steve	18.8
pho	o’neal,shaquille	16.7
pho	richardson,jason	14.7
pho	barbosa,leandro	13.0
pho	hill,grant	11.5
pho	barnes,matt	10.6
pho	bell,raja	8.6
pho	diaw,boris	8.5
pho	dudley,jared	5.7
pho	dragic,goran	5.3
pho	amundson,louis	4.8
pho	tucker,alando	4.4
pho	lopez,robin	3.3
pho	swift,stromile	3.2
pho	brown,dee	3.0
pho	singletary,sean	3.0
pho	sims,courtney	0.0
por	roy,brandon	22.3
por	aldridge,lamarcu	17.5
por	blake,steve	11.7
por	outlaw,travis	11.3
por	fernandez,rudy	9.7
por	oden,greg	9.0
por	rodriguez,sergio	6.0
por	przybilla,joel	6.0
por	batum,nicolas	5.4
por	bayless,jerryd	4.6
por	frye,channing	4.0
por	randolph,shavlik	1.9
por	diogu,ike	1.6
por	ruffin,michael	0.8
por	webster,martell	0.0
sac	martin,kevin	22.6
sac	salmons,john	17.5
sac	miller,brad	13.1
sac	gooden,drew	12.6
sac	nocioni,andres	12.6
sac	garcia,francisco	12.2
sac	udrih,beno	12.0
sac	thompson,jason	11.6
sac	hawes,spencer	11.5
sac	mccants,rashad	9.4
sac	diogu,ike	8.3
sac	jackson,bobby	7.7
sac	brown,bobby	5.4
sac	solomon,will	4.5
sac	douby,quincy	4.0
sac	williams,shelden	3.8
sac	moore,mikki	3.8
sac	greene,donte	3.7
sac	booth,calvin	2.3
sac	thomas,kenny	1.0
sac	simmons,cedric	0.2
san	parker,tony	22.5
san	duncan,tim	19.9
san	ginobili,manu	15.2
san	mason,roger	10.7
san	gooden,drew	9.0
san	finley,michael	8.6
san	bonner,matt	7.7
san	hill,george	6.1
san	thomas,kurt	5.2
san	mensah-bonsu,pop	4.9
san	udoka,ime	4.3
san	farmer,desmon	4.0
san	hairston,malik	3.7
san	oberto,fabricio	3.6
san	tolliver,anthony	3.3
san	vaughn,jacque	3.0
san	croshere,austin	2.7
san	ahearn,blake	2.6
san	bowen,bruce	2.5
san	williams,marcus_	0.3
tor	bosh,chris	21.9
tor	calderon,jose	15.4
tor	marion,shawn	14.4
tor	bargnani,andrea	13.6
tor	o’neal,jermaine	13.0
tor	parker,anthony	10.8
tor	graham,joey	7.4
tor	kapono,jason	7.3
tor	moon,jamario	7.0
tor	mensah-bonsu,pop	6.3
tor	solomon,will	5.9
tor	ukic,roko	4.9
tor	douby,quincy	4.7
tor	humphries,kris	4.1
tor	o’bryant,patrick	3.9
tor	banks,marcus	2.6
tor	voskuhl,jake	1.3
tor	adams,hassan	0.9
tor	jawai,nathan	0.4
uta	williams,deron	22.0
uta	boozer,carlos	15.8
uta	okur,mehmet	15.4
uta	millsap,paul	13.8
uta	brewer,ronnie	12.9
uta	kirilenko,andrei	11.8
uta	korver,kyle	8.3
uta	miles,c.j.	8.3
uta	koufos,kosta	4.5
uta	price,ronnie	4.5
uta	harpring,matt	4.2
uta	knight,brevin	3.5
uta	almond,morris	3.3
uta	fesenko,kyrylo	2.3
uta	collins,jarron	1.9
was	butler,caron	20.5
was	jamison,antawn	20.4
was	arenas,gilbert	16.9
was	blatche,andray	10.1
was	james,mike	10.0
was	haywood,brendan	9.8
was	young,nick	9.6
was	stevenson,deshaw	7.3
was	songaila,darius	7.1
was	mcgee,javale	6.4
was	crittenton,javar	6.3
was	daniels,antonio	6.2
was	mcguire,dominic	5.9
was	dixon,juan	5.6
was	pecherov,oleksiy	3.7
was	thomas,etan	3.2
was	brown,dee	3.2

Win Shares added to Stats Calculator

Added Win Shares (broken down by offensive and defensive win shares) to the stats calculator today.

NBA Players and the Aging Curve: Part 4

A comment from Grizzed By Vanjulio spurred me to take what was gleaned in the first installments and run a 2010 minutes-played projection on a team. The choice of basis and adjustment was determined by looking at the projected minutes for the historically similar players making up the sample for a given player that we are projecting. (I know that’s a tangled web of sentence)  The basis/adjustments for projected minute played ranges are listed below the projections.

Without further ado, projected minutes for your 2010 Memphis Grizzlies:

Defensive Ratings Added to Stats Calculator

Just a quick update, the stats calculator has been updated to include defensive rating.

PER Calculations Tightened up on Stats Calculator

Earlier today I added PER to the stats calculator. I initially took some shortcuts to get an approximate PER, but I’ve since addressed those so you should be able to get a much more accurate number.

Advanced Stats Calculator: Usage vs % Team Possessions

While working on the C# app that drives the stats calc, I realized what I had been calling “Usage Pct” was not using the same formula basketball-reference uses. Instead, I was using the method Dean Oliver uses in Basketball on Paper to calculate the individual “% Tm Possessions” values.

For some reason, I’d always thought these were equivalent but that was my mistake. The primary difference seems to be that the Oliver calculation includes offensive rebounding and assist components, whereas the Usage percentage is only concerned with shots and turnovers.

The page has been updated so that the Usage column uses the same calculation as basketball-reference, and a new column has been added called “% Team Poss” that displays the Oliver-style calculation.

Calculator is here.

Approximate PER added to Stats Calculator

I updated the stats calculator to calculate an approximate version of PER. There are a couple of things keeping it from being exact:

1 – I use the simplest form of team pace estimate. – Fixed

2 – If you look at the PER calculation method described by basketball-reference.com here, you can see at the bottom where a modifier is applied to the aPER to standardize results across different seasons. Obtaining this modifier involves doing a weighted total of the aPER for all players in the league. Instead, I approximate its value as a function of league pace. I may address this at some point by determining all of the post-merger modifier values and letting the user select season from a drop-down, but its not something that’s high on my list. – Fixed

Update: Number one has been addressed and fixed. This also makes the usage calculation a little more accurate.

Another Update: Number two has been addressed and fixed. I’m going to make an updated post.