Enhanced Offensive Ratings – Factoring in MORR (Miss Off Reb Rate)

New blog HoopNumbers.com recently posted Missed Offensive Rebound Rates here. (in other words, the chance that a player’s missed FG is rebounded by his own team)

One of the approximations that the Offensive Rating calculation makes is estimating the number of possessions a player gives away by missed shots leading to defensive rebounds. The estimate is based on the team’s average offensive rebounding rate. With the MORR numbers available, we can recalculate offensive rating using MORR instead of the team average.

Let’s take a look at how this changes things. For these samples I’m looking at last year’s data for players with 1600+ minutes played. In the charts below, OffRtg is the player’s Offensive Rating, OffRtgMORR is the offensive rating with MORR factored in.

First, the players that got the biggest boost:

Blake and Sweet Lou each got a bump of almost 5 points, pretty substantial.

Here are the players taking the biggest hit:

These numbers pass the laugh test for me, as I do think Okafor and Villanueva were overrated by their base Offensive Ratings.

Finally here are the players ranked by the new adjusted offensive rating (OffRtgMORR), the top two remain the same (Gasol and Paul), but things mix up somewhat after that

For spreadsheet lovers, the raw data is here.

Update: Fuller view of the raw data is here.

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