RANKINGS SITE

One of the approximations that the Offensive Rating calculation makes is estimating the number of possessions a player gives away by missed shots leading to defensive rebounds. The estimate is based on the team’s average offensive rebounding rate. With the MORR numbers available, we can recalculate offensive rating using MORR instead of the team average.

Let’s take a look at how this changes things. For these samples I’m looking at last year’s data for players with 1600+ minutes played. In the charts below, OffRtg is the player’s Offensive Rating, OffRtgMORR is the offensive rating with MORR factored in.

First, the players that got the biggest boost:

Blake and Sweet Lou each got a bump of almost 5 points, pretty substantial.

Here are the players taking the biggest hit:

These numbers pass the laugh test for me, as I do think Okafor and Villanueva were overrated by their base Offensive Ratings.

Finally here are the players ranked by the new adjusted offensive rating (OffRtgMORR), the top two remain the same (Gasol and Paul), but things mix up somewhat after that

For spreadsheet lovers, the raw data is here.

Update: Fuller view of the raw data is here.

A high blue bar with a low red bar indicates a player who is generating a lot of points given his touches, and conversely a low blue bar with a high red bar indicates a player that is generating relatively few points given his utilization.

Without further ado, projected minutes for your 2010 Memphis Grizzlies:

For some reason, I’d always thought these were equivalent but that was my mistake. The primary difference seems to be that the Oliver calculation includes offensive rebounding and assist components, whereas the Usage percentage is only concerned with shots and turnovers.

The page has been updated so that the Usage column uses the same calculation as basketball-reference, and a new column has been added called “% Team Poss” that displays the Oliver-style calculation.

Calculator is here.

1 – I use the simplest form of team pace estimate. – Fixed

2 – If you look at the PER calculation method described by basketball-reference.com here, you can see at the bottom where a modifier is applied to the aPER to standardize results across different seasons. Obtaining this modifier involves doing a weighted total of the aPER for all players in the league. Instead, I approximate its value as a function of league pace. I may address this at some point by determining all of the post-merger modifier values and letting the user select season from a drop-down, but its not something that’s high on my list. – Fixed

Update: Number one has been addressed and fixed. This also makes the usage calculation a little more accurate.

Another Update: Number two has been addressed and fixed. I’m going to make an updated post.